时间&地点 

时间：2026年6月11日周四19:00-20:30

地点：北京大学 北阁一楼 104大会议室

主讲：Joseph M. Parent

主持：归泳涛

语言：英文

Joseph M. Parent：What Trap? Great Power Decline and Retrenchment

约瑟夫・M・帕伦特：什么陷阱？大国衰落与战略收缩

How sticky is the Thucydides trap? There is broad consensus that the relative power of the United States is declining and that this decline will have negative consequences for international politics. This pessimism is justified by the belief that great powers have few options to deal with acute relative decline. Retrenchment is seen as a hazardous policy that demoralizes allies and encourages external predation. Faced with shrinking means, great powers are thought to have few options to stave off decline short of preventive war. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, however, retrenchment is not a relatively rare and ineffective policy in­strument. A comparison of all cases of great power ordinal decline since 1870 demonstrates that these transitions are a cause of peace, not war. These arguments have important implications for power transition theories and the rise of China.

Joseph M. Parent（约瑟夫・M・帕伦特）

Joe Parent’s research examines how shifts in power affect cooperation. He is the author of Uniting States (Oxford, 2011), and coauthor (with Joe Uscinski) of American Conspiracy Theories (Oxford, 2014) and (with Paul MacDonald) Twilight of the Titans (Cornell, 2018). He has published in the American Journal of Psychology, Foreign Affairs, History of Political Thought, International Security, Security Studies, Sociological Theory, and World Politics, assisted the National Intelligence Council on its Global Trends 2030 and Global Trends 2035 reports, and received a Fulbright fellowship in Rome and a Nobel Fellowship in Oslo. He co-edits the Columbia University Press Series in International Order and Politics, and the Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum. He received his BA from the University of Chicago in 1999, and his PhD from Columbia University in 2006.

      ⭐请自行解决入校权限  

扫码报名👆

入场须知：

1.凭短信收到的【电子票二维码】验票签到入场。

2.如收到报名成功短信，请于讲座当天18:30-19:00入场，迟到将无法进入。

编辑：李方琦